A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO

نویسنده

  • Patrick A. Messerlin
چکیده

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to: GMF Paper Series The GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety of transatlantic topics by staff, fellows, and partners of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of GMF. Comments from readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected]. About GMF The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-making institution dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between the United States and Europe. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders to discuss the most pressing transatlantic themes, and by examining ways in which transatlantic cooperation can address a variety of global policy challenges. In addition, GMF supports a number of initiatives to strengthen democracies. Founded in 1972 through a gift from Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides of the Atlantic. A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTO The absence of clear signs from the trade negotiators in Geneva does not bode well for a rapid conclusion of the Doha Round. Moreover, the possibility of a hasty conclusion puts into question the quality of any final agreement. It is time for reflection, and therefore this paper aims to step back and focus on what has been happening — and what could happen — from a longer term perspective. Section 1 focuses on the past: its misperceptions and its constraints. Section 2 argues that the current view on preferential trade agreements (PTAs) is too optimistic, both in economic and diplomatic terms. Section 3 focuses on the key elements of the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiating process, i.e., the balance between the liberalization (tariff cuts) formula and the formula specifying the exceptions to tariff cuts. Section 4 then examines the whole WTO negotiating process, and argues for some much needed " flexi-plining. "

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تاریخ انتشار 2007